Enough Already

Posted by Baseball Bob at 09:55
Mar 262015

I have not been missing from posting because I am falling into old habits: I have been missing because I have very little to say. I have been watching some baseball almost every day, but I am TIRED of games that don’t count, and ready for the real season, still about 10 days away.

Mostly I watch the Yankees, so I guess I’ll give my impressions:

A-Rod looks OK against lefties, pretty lost against righties though. Most expensive platoon DH in history by an order of magnitude?

Sabathia doesn’t look like he is coming back well, but Tanaka has been great despite no fastball at all. He says his fastball is there, but he is 1) taking it easy and 2) working on other things – IF he has a 94-95 fastball (it was 96-97 early last year) AND what he has shown this spring, then he is Clayton Kershaw squared.

The Yankees have NO regular, right-handed hitters. Assuming no roster surprises, the roster will have McCann, Gregorius, Gardner, Ellsbury and Jones as righties, and Beltran, Headley, Drew and Teixeira as switch-hitters. The righties are the bench: Rodriguez, Ryan, Young and Murphy. This means that a right-handed starter for the opposition could face ALL lefties (!!) but a left-handed starter might face only 4 or 5 righties. They have trended this way for a while, but this is pretty extreme. And at least Teixeira and Beltran have historically been better from the left side; not sure about Drew and Headley.

Speaking of Drew and Headley, Drew has picked up where he left off: he hasn’t hit at all. Headley, though, looks pretty solid: I always liked him and I like the signing. I would rather take my chances with Pirela or Refsnyder at second, though. Which part of an OPS under 350 (!!!) suggested they give Drew $5M??? I bet he didn’t have another offer at ANY MLB guaranteed price.

On the pitching side, Pineda, Eovaldi and Warren (my pick for the 5th spot) all look really good, as does Miller. Betances, though, has struggled. I think his game may take longer to come around. I really can’t say about the rest of the pen, but on paper it looks better than the 2014 Royals, hailed as the best bullpen in modern times. We’ll see.

Gregorius can’t hit much, and not at all against lefties, but I would play him every day because: 1) he may get better, with regular PAs against lefties, 2) Ryan can’t hit ANYONE anyway, and 3) his defense might earn a gold glove if he also gets 155 games or so. Plus, he is 23 and may figure it out. Plus, plus, if you play him every day it is easier to pinch-hit in the late innings (say A-Rod) if they bring in a lefty to face him, so he is likely to face a righty in a game-critical situation.

Ellsbury has been out, of course, so I don’t know what to expect of him, though he SAYS he will be ready to go on opening day. McCann has looked great behind the plate, and so-so at the plate. Tex is the same so-so player he was last year. Gardner has always been a slow starter.

Bottom line: no idea if they are the upside Yankees or not. They should score more than last year, and the bullpen should be great, so their chances to surprise with 88-90 wins and a WC slot (or division title in a balanced division) rests primarily on the rotation, and that looks good so far.

Go Yanks! And PLEASE let’s get this thing started!

Mar 182015

With BYU eliminated in a tough play-in game, my last vestige of interest in the NCAA tournament is over, and I can concentrate on baseball. I came across a list of Vegas over/under for wins in a season (I am sure there are multiple versions), which I reproduce here:

NL East        NL Central     NL West        AL East     AL Central    AL West

WAS 93         STL 87.5         LAD 91         BOS 86       DET 86.5      sLAAA 87.5

MIA 81.5       PIT 85.5          SFG 85         BAL 84.5    KCR 83         SEA 85

NYM 81         CHC 81.5        SDP 84         TOR 83.5    CWS 82        OAK 82.5

ATL 73.5        MIL 80           ARI 72.5      NYY 80        CLE 81         TEX 76.5

PHI 67           CIN 79            COL 70.5      TBR 77.5     MIN 68.5     HOU 75.5

The Website I got this from invites us to pick 5 overs and 5 unders, and suggests he will revisit at the end of the season. I will do that here, and give my O/U for all the teams, and invite those who wish to do so to put their picks in the comments.

My 5 “picked” overs:

Yankees – I think it extremely unlikely that the team with the best rotation in the division (my opinion) AND a management that HATES to lose has a losing season.

Orioles – I am finally on board: this team has been over for the last several years, and still gets no love. Yes, a fall-off from last season, but they won 96 games and are now expected to win 84?

Nationals – wow, picking the team with the highest O/U in baseball to be over? Yes, but look at that division! The Nats ought to win 100 games, and I think they are very likely to win more than 93 even if things go pretty badly.

Cubs – I like the young cubs, and I think all that patience will pay off with a great team in a couple of years, and with an uptick this season.

Royals – a young team with a WS taste, they don’t seem likely to fall to 83 wins, even if they were “lucky” last year.

My 5 “picked” unders

Phillies – this is the year they lose 100 games. Maybe more, if they manage to trade Hamels sooner. With Lee down, this is a replacement level rotation after Hamels, with possible replacement-level players at about 5 positions. And I ROOT for them!

A’s – I think Billy Beane has finally miscalculated.

Padres – we saw (in the Royals and Giants) the value of defense last year. The Padres traded defense for offense in a big way, and I think 84 wins is optimistic, even though their fans are expecting 90.

Red Sox – I look at that starting rotation, and think the Sox miscalculated – there is NO ONE there to stop a losing streak. When Ortiz gets old (he will ONE day, you know) and Hanley gets hurt (as he usually does) so the offense isn’t putting up 7 runs, that pitching and defense will ALLOW 7 runs too often, and the Sox will be ordinary.

Giants – World Champs or not, I don’t believe in this team

Rangers – And to think I picked them to win the west a year ago!

The other 20:

Marlins – under

Braves – under

Cardinals – under

Pirates – over

Brewers – over

Dodgers – over

Rockies – over

DBacks – over

Blue Jays – under

Rays – over

White Sox – under

Indians – over

Twins – under

Angels – under

Mariners – under

Astros – over

There you have it! What do you all think??


Mar 162015

Who knows? I was perusing the Yankees’ spring stats, and it appeared to me that the “real” Yankees are all doing poorly, and the “fake” Yankees are mostly doing pretty well. I guess that is common, sort of: the guys with guaranteed spots are going through the motions, working on certain things but not worrying about making an impression, while the hangers-on or the guys invited to ML camp with no chance to make the team are striving to impress, and those with an outside chance of making the roster (2014 Yangervis Solarte) bust their butt to impress.

Anyway, whatever the reason, I found this fun oddity: in the top 10 of the Yankees’ spring by OPS are nine guys unlikely to make the roster, and one guy who is sure to make the roster but is maybe trying to impress. The last is, of course, ARod and his 1.064 OPS ranks sixth on the team. And while there are a couple of 2 for 3 types at the bottom of the top 10, all the 5 ahead of him have played in 9 or 10 games (he has played in 8) so they are all getting regular playing time. The sample sizes are ridiculously small, of course, especially since playing 10 games doesn’t mean 45 plate appearances, but rather about 20. Still, the best hitters on the Yankees this spring, OPS supplied, have been: Heathcott 1433, Bird 1313, Williams 1179, Cave 1167 and Pirela 1108. Of these, only Pirela has even an outside chance of making the opening day roster, and that would be as a backup infielder if Brandon Ryan can’t answer the bell and starts out on the DL. Of the non-ARod regulars, the best has been Chase Headley, 11th at 928, actually just behind 3 guys at 1000 on 5, 2 and 2 plate appearances each.

On the pitching side, it is different. Sorting by innings, the top of the list is Eovaldi, with 9 IP and 1 ER allowed. Warren and Whitley, competing for the 5th rotation spot vacated by the Capuano injury, have 8 and 7 IP respectively, wit Warren having allowed 3 ER and Whitley none. And Rogers (6 IP) and Pineda (5 IP) have neither of them allowed a run. All these guys will be on the roster to start the season, absent injuries.

Wondering if this is entirely typical, I called up the Mets and found that Cuddyer and Granderson both have OPS over 1100, though that ranks 8th and 9th on the Mets, and only one of those above them has fewer than 20 PAs. So sometimes sure-thing starters DO have good early springs, but it is apparently typical for wannabes to lead the way in the first few weeks of spring training. On the pitching side, the Mets pitchers don’t yet look all that sharp: Colon leads the team with 7 IP and also with 8 (!) ER. Harvey has thrown 4.1 innings and allowed 2 ER as the Mets slow-play his return.

I can’t get leaderboards, and I am too lazy to go through all the teams to see who is sizzling the hottest, but I suspect it is someone who will be playing in the minor leagues once the bell rings.

Will CC Bounce Back?

Posted by Baseball Bob at 11:08
Mar 122015

The question in the title is one, of course, in which all Yankee fans (and to some degree all baseball fans) would like an answer, and also one, of course, which cannot BE answered until this season and maybe several more are in the books. That doesn’t stop us from trying, of course, and that is what this post is about.

All the data in this post is from Baseball-Reference.com, because they have a marvelous search tool which allows me to attempt the analysis. And bWAR is a measure of how well a season turned out (based on runs allowed) rather than an attempt to get to underlying ability. While the latter might help us better project from one season to the next, that is not what I would like to do: Steamer and Zips and many others already do that, and they predict a modest rebound.

What I want to answer is this: what pitchers have been as dominant as Sabathia through his age 31 season, then fallen off badly for two years (as he has) and how did they do in their age 34, 35, etc. seasons? Seems like fun, even though not likely truly predictive.

To start, then, I asked the question: what pitchers since WWII have had at least 40 WAR through their age 31 season (CC was at 54.1). It turns out that there are 33 pitchers who qualify, and CC stands 10th on that list. Tops on the list is Clemens at 71.7 and Pedro at 71.6, and the list includes all the pitchers you think of as the post-war greats, like Maddux, Palmer, Gooden, etc. Notable by their absence, for me, are Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax and Whitey Ford. Anyway, from this list of 33 I have to remove a few: Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, and Cole Hamels – none of them has yet had an age 34 season (or 32 for that matter!) so they are not predictive. So that leaves 29 pitchers (obviously I had to remove CC himself, too). That is my comparison sample.

CC compares favorably to the average of these 29 pitchers – he started more games (383-327), won more games (191-157), had a better winning percentage (.652-.592) and more WAR (54.1-51.1). He has a higher ERA (3.50-3.16) but most of that is context, as his ERA+ is nearly identical (127-125). It seems absolutely fair to consider these guys his peers. He trails in Complete Games and Shutouts, since this list includes pitchers from the 50s and 60s, when such feats were the norm. Oops, on proceeding to this step, I was making some fundamental mistake, which turned out to be Dennis Eckersley and Sam McDowell. Both of these are starters-turned-relievers, and not truly comparable to CC (Smolz didn’t make the original list, so he didn’t cause this problem). The comparison group is down to 27.

Now comes the laborious part – I had to go to each of these 27 pitcher’s pages, and extract the rest of their careers. I wanted to do this in order to see how many of them fell off at ages 32-33, which is a direct comparison group, but also to see how they all did going forward.

It turns out that most of these pitchers were still pretty good in their age 32-33 seasons. The exceptions, which perhaps become CC’s peer group, with fewer than 2 WAR in those two seasons (CC is at -0.2 which of course includes his injury plagued -0.6 last year) are: Drysdale (-0.2), Saberhagen (-0.1), Newhouser (0.4) and Blue (1.9). Drysdale was done after his age-32 season, Newhouser pitched at age 34 to 0.2 WAR. Saberhagen bounced back to post an age-34 WAR of 2.9, and an age 35 WAR of 3.7. Blue did not pitch at age 34, and accumulated 1.2 WAR at 35 and 36 before retiring.

The most comparable pitcher of this short list is Saberhagen. A left-hander like CC, he accumulated 52.5 WAR through age 31, putting him 11th on the original list, with CC 10th. He was hurt and missed his age 32 season, and pitched sparingly at age 33. CC pitched poorly at age 32, probably due to the injury that sidelined for most of age 33. Saberhagen then had two more productive seasons, was hurt again and missed his age-36 season, tried a comeback at age 37 and retired when it didn’t work.

My conclusion is not encouraging: while the peer group of 27 continued to pitch well, those that fell off did not, for the most part, recover. The sample size is small, but I could also have tried comparing to 275-pound pitchers with knee problems – I bet not too many of THEM have been good after being hurt in their 30s. But it seems that the ONLY pitchers with 40 WAR for their CAREERS over 250 pounds (CC lists at 285) are Sabathia and Bartolo Colon. Lowering the criterion to 30 WAR we get to add Carlos Zambrano and Freddy Garcia. Not sure what this tells us, except that CC is unique – he is the ONLY really heavy pitcher to have been truly elite into his early 30s, and therefore there is no way a comparison like this will really give us insight into his future.

One hope I have: Bill James in an old abstract speculated on what happens when a pitcher loses his good fastball. Does he hang it up (Don Drysdale) or does he become a finesse pitcher (Greg Maddux). CC has always had excellent control, and good secondary pitches. Maybe he will find his way as a 90-mph fastball finesse pitcher, and put in some more successful seasons that way.

Capuano Surprise (?!)

Posted by Baseball Bob at 08:20
Mar 122015

This is going to be a post that doesn’t mention a certain former Yankee third baseman. Except, I guess I just did!

Chris Capuano, slated to be the Yankee’s fifth starter, was pulled in the first inning after injuring his leg covering first base. This is Capuano’s 13th MLB season, and he has had only four seasons in which he made every start. You would have to accept that he is fragile, or injury-prone, or unlucky. Whatever, he is not really someone you can count on going out there every fifth day.

But Ivan Nova threw from a mound, and is expected to throw curve balls soon, so the projections that have him back in May may actually be on track. And the Yankees sort of saw this coming: Adam Warren was their second spring-game starter, and has thrown more innings than any pitcher in camp. This puts the rotation as Tanaka, Pineda, Sabathia, Eovaldi and Warren, if Capuano can’t answer the bell. Of course, we don’t know how serious the injury is, but it IS Capuano.

In unrelated news, Yu Darvish is getting a second opinion, but the first is that he needs ligament replacement (Tommy John) surgery, and is done for the year and part of next year. It is interesting that the first two serious injuries to pitchers occurred to two of the best pitchers on two of the worst teams in baseball. The poor get poorer. If Cliff Lee is actually out for the year, the Phillies will a) get no prospects for trading him, and have to eat $37.5M (!) and b) likely lose another 3-4 games. Ditto the Rangers and Darvish, but even more games. Ugh. The race for which team will lose 100 games is well and truly joined, and both may achieve this milestone. The Mets’ 120 losses is probably out of reach, but the Phillies could make a run if they manage to trade Hamels and Utley and Howard both get hurt. And that is not all that unlikely.

Keep tuned. I may actually do some analysis and put up another post today! Now THAT would be a true surprise.

And the Beat Goes On

Posted by Baseball Bob at 08:42
Mar 102015

Yesterday the Yankees played a game against the Rays that was kind of encouraging. First, they started what could actually be their opening day lineup: Ellsbury, Gardner, Beltran, Teixeira, McCann, Headley, Rodriguez, Drew and Gregorius. Fun to have them all on the field at the same time! Then, they got two DOMINANT innings from Pineda, and three from Eovaldi. After the starters got 3 plate appearances each, and holding a 2-0 lead, the scrubs took over, and one of those I am watching, Rob Refsnyder, got a hit in two tries (though he also made an error). All in all a great spring outing, a fun game to watch, and lots of great story lines.

The ESPN.com headline? ARod has RBI single as Yankees beat Rays 4-3

I wonder what the record is for consecutive headlines about a single player? I think we are up to 13 days in a row.

In other news, Cliff Lee may be done. He pitched a couple of days ago, felt a mild pain but which felt like the pain that sidelined him at the end of last season, had an MRI and was scratched from today’s start. He is awaiting word on whether he will need surgery, and if he does it will end this season for sure, and possibly he will be done. One more blow for a Phillies team which figures to have the fewest wins of any MLB team. AND had hoped to both dump his contract and get out of the $37.5M he is owed, plus perhaps add a prospect or two to the mix. Sad, really.

I saw a list yesterday of the 20 highest-paid pitchers in history. The methodology did NOT include money owed but not yet earned, so Kershaw was not on it, but it was still fascinating. Top of the list was Randy Johnson, which makes sense. All of the pitchers on the list were recent, of course, as even an inflation-adjusted list (which this was not) wouldn’t show that Walter Johnson was paid a lot, but I hadn’t realized who would be #2 on that list at the moment. For fun, try to guess, and I’ll put it at the end of the post.

And Yu Darvish has a tear of the ulnar ligament, and is almost certainly facing Tommy John surgery and its season-and-a-half to two-season recovery time. Is it just me or are pitchers getting hurt at an accelerating rate? I don’t know how to evaluate this, because expectations have changed over time, but it seems to me that they are. I grew up on the 50s/60s Yankees, and I don’t recall anything like these injury frequencies, though there were many fewer pitchers throwing many more innings each. This makes me wonder, again unanalyzable, whether more innings might actually be better for the ones who can do it. Famously, when Tommy John himself came off the ground-breaking Tommy John surgery, he was advised to “pitch 9 innings every fourth day and see if your arm falls off”. He tried, it didn’t, and he returned to be a 250 IP/year pitcher! Talk about coddling! There used to be a theory that you had to build up arm strength (we have the same theory) but the way to do it was to pitch. Yes, spring training starts were always shortened (though more than 2 innings) and early in the season pitchers often were removed, even if somewhat effective, after 6 or 7 or 8 innings because they weren’t yet at mid-season strength but still they threw a lot more.

Perhaps the reality is that they got hurt just as much, and it ended their careers much more often, so I don’t remember THOSE pitchers. And since a team carried, typically, only 7 or 8 pitchers, perhaps the NUMBER of pitchers was the same as today, but instead of 12 of 15 being healthy, it was 7 of 15. I remember Mark Fidrych, a phenomenon as a rookie, hurt as a sophomore, and never again a MLB pitcher. I just don’t know how to research any of this.

The #2 pitcher of all-time in earnings in the bank is Mariano Rivera. Surprised? I was.

In case you missed it (do you really scan spring training Astros box scores? I guess I do) nine Braves pitchers combined to go 10 innings in a 2-2 tie against the Astros. And this is noteworthy how? Well, they didn’t give up any hits! A 10-inning no-hitter, in which only one pitcher threw multiple innings (two). The Astros drew nine (!) walks and scored their two runs by loading the bases on two walks and a hit batsman with no outs, then getting back-to-back run scoring groundouts.

Only in spring training! I have been watching baseball for sixty years (!) and thought I had seen it all. I hadn’t.

The ARod Phenomenon

Posted by Baseball Bob at 08:31
Mar 092015

lately I have been getting my news from Google News, which selects articles on-line from many sources, and seems a bit more evenhanded than any of the direct news sites (CNN, FOX, MSNBC). One feature is that if you choose enough articles about a given topic, it will ask you if you are “interested”. I select most of the articles about baseball, and I also selected articles about college football, and eventually it asked me if I was interested in College Football and when I said yes, it highlighted an article a day on that topic. A few articles later it asked me if I was interested in the Boston Red Sox. I said no, but continued to read baseball articles, and eventually it asked me if I was interested in the New York Yankees, to which I replied yes. I guess the concept that I am interested in BASEBALL is beyond its algorithm: you can be interested in college football, or in the NBA, but NOT in MLB!

Anyway, since then it offers me an article about the Yankees every day, as well as the generic sports section. And since February 26, which is now 12 days, EVERY article is about ARod. ARod reports early, ARod takes grounders at first, ARod doesn’t start first spring game (not, Yankees play first spring game, Aaron Judge homers, Eovaldi sharp, but the non-ARod event), etc. Truly, 12 days in a row is an article about the almost-40 non-thirdbaseman who IS a story, but is not THE story of the spring Yankees! Today’s article is about him starting at third base yesterday, and not embarrassing himself. Good for him!

I really wonder if “Yankees win 115 games” or “Yankees lose 100 games” will be lost in the story of “ARod gets a bad cold” or “Fans at Fenway Park boo ARod”. That last is a non-story (they have booed him from the day he went to NY instead of Boston in a trade, lo those many years ago) is a sure-fire headline in our future, unless he gets hurt or cut before opening day. If he were to DIE, the stories might stop in a few months.

I am actually rooting for him to do well, but I am also rooting for the press to shut up, or at least for Google News to discover that there are one or two other Yankees in 2015.

Ahh, Spring Baseball

Posted by Baseball Bob at 08:08
Mar 042015

Lots of games played by players wearing MLB uniforms. I assume, lineup-wise, that the Yankee game was typical: they used 2 complete lineups, changing over in the 5th and 6th inning. The first lineup featured 4 (of 9) hitters who figure to be on the 25-man roster, all (as it happens) primarily outfielders: Gardiner, Ellsbury, Chris Young and Garrett Jones. And Jones, of course, is a sub (he played first base) – he will be backup firstbaseman (unless ARod is), second backup outfielder (Young is first) if Beltran plays right or first backup if Young plays right and Beltran DH. The box score or play-by-play will show that the Yankees got 5 hits and a run in the first two innings with these players and 5 minor-leaguers, but I watched the game and NONE of those balls were hit hard. The Phillies in the game scored a run on an error and a run on a balk, but they hit the ball harder than NY. Then, in the 9th inning, the Phillies pitched lefty Mario Holland, who WAS a major leaguer last year, and he gave up a ringing double to Mason Williams leading off the inning, a ball that nearly left the yard in right field. A groundout and a strikeout left the runner on third, two outs, and Philly leading 5-1. But a grounder up-the-middle by Cave was cut off by the second baseman with no chance to throw out Cave, instead of the shortstop who was moving TOWARD first base and who DID have a chance, an infield single and an RBI. A line-drive single by Heathcott, his second hit of the game after a long double earlier put runners at first and second with two outs and top Yankee prospect Aaron Judge at the plate. Now an interesting note about all this is that Holland throws left-handed (he was basically a left-handed specialist in 2012) and all three hits so far were by left-handed Yankee hitters. Aaron Judge is a right-handed power hitter. In a “real” game Holland would likely not have faced Heathcott, and certainly not Judge, but face him he did and on a 3-2 pitch Judge put one just over the left-field wall for a 3-run HR and a 5-5 tie. A few minutes later the game ended by that score.

The primary takeaway from this game was “Wow, Baseball!” Also I got my first look at Rob Refsnyder and Aaron Judge. Refsnyder didn’t look good at bat, though he did in the field, and Judge of course hit the long home run (he also walked).

The other spring games, which I did not watch and for which we get no play-by-play had some interesting points. The company line is that pitchers are ahead of hitters at this stage in the spring, but mostly this did not seem to be the case yesterday. The Red Sox followed this theory, playing a split-squad double-header against two college teams and managing 3 runs in 15 innings, winning 2-1 and 1-0 in 8 and 7 innings respectively. The Indians (0 runs) and Orioles (2 runs) both had low totals, but their GAMES were not low-scoring (the Tigers got 15 (!) against Baltimore, and the Reds scored 10 against Cleveland. The Pirates and Blue Jays played an 8-7 game. The anomaly that I spotted was this:

There were 9 games played yesterday: 4 involved professional teams against college teams, and 5 were between two professional clubs. The combined score of the 5 college-related games were: 1, 3, 4, and 8, an average of 4 per game (for both teams). The combined score in the MLB (sort of) games were: 10, 10, 13, 15, 17 for an average of 13 (for both teams). The 5-5 game I watched was the lowest-scoring game of the day! My conclusion on this tiny sample is that college pitchers are ahead of their professional counterparts at this point, but that professional hitters are ahead of college hitters (or just that much better) and also ahead of the pitchers.

The Tigers 15-2 rout of the Orioles was interesting because they had only 10 hits. They drew 7 walks, FOUR hit batsmen and got on once on an error. They plated 15 runs and had 7 left-on-base: no caught stealings, no DPs, no outs on the basepaths.

Baseball is back. And so am I.

First Games Today

Posted by Baseball Bob at 09:02
Mar 032015

I know it is not real baseball; after the first couple of innings I will likely not recognize most of the names. But after 5+ month, baseball will be played today – players wearing New York Yankee uniforms will line up against players wearing Philadelphia Phillies uniforms, pitches will be thrown, umpires will call balls and strikes, players will hit the ball and run the bases, and (I think) it will be shown on mlb.tv. I will be watching, as my baseball fever is building.

By the way, FanGraphs has now updated its projections by blending Zips with Steamer, which moved some of the needles a little bit. The Yankees project now as 82-80 and both the Mets and Rays project at 81-81 so, according to FG, these three teams are completely comparable. I agree with this, in a way, but the Yankees have MUCH more variability, as I tried to demonstrate. I still think they have a decent chance to be much better than projected (obviously their management does, too) and also a large chance to be much worse. The average, which is all a system like FG can do, seems reasonable at about 82-83 wins, but I think there is a pretty low probability that they will actually finish there.

With NO data at all to defend it, I put the odds about here:

95+ wins 10%

91-94 wins 15%

88-90 wins 25%

83-87 wins 20%

79-82 wins 15%

75-78 wins 15%

<75 wins 10%

Thus I think there is a 40% chance they are right in it, and probably make the postseason, and about a 35% chance that they have a losing record! Now THERE (if true, of course) are some serious error bars.

There was an article today about Nathan Eovaldi, currently fifth on the Yankee starting pitcher depth chart. While the article is about his search for another pitch (change/splitter) one of the things which appears in the comments is someone who thinks he will be the Yankee’s ace soon. Someone else says Tanaka, and someone else Pineda. The Yankees have that kind of volatile roster.

Anyway, it’s time for baseball! The wait is (sort of) over. And real opening day only a month away. Yay!

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