My quibble is the following, with regards to the Yankees:

FanGraphs projected some of the Yankees to be very poor players in 2013, namely the “replacement kids” Wells, Hafner, Overbay. The future projection is presumably based on those preseason numbers, considering that to be more reliable than the small sample sizes of the season-to-date. Fair enough. Regression to the mean is what they do, I understand. But consider this:

Vernon Wells to date has 10 HRs and is sporting a .288/.343/.513  wOBA .367 line. This is not BABIP fueled (BABIP .288) and projects, along with above-average fielding, to 1.5 fWAR so far. He has surprised EVERYONE (certainly including me) by being a VERY productive player in the season’s first quarter. But look at the projection, which INCLUDES the great start: .256/.305/.455 wOBA .327 fWAR 0.9. So after posting 1.5 WAR and .367 wOBA (plus 4.5 runs over average in left field) they project him to LOSE 0.6 WAR (and 3 runs in fielding) in just 100 more plate appearances, and the majority of them against left-handers (with Granderson back, Wells will likely sit more against righties. There is NO WAY that he will 1) be this bad and 2) be allowed to play if he is. He MIGHT be no better than replacement-level the rest of the way, and finish with the same 1.5 WAR he has now, but in face he is LIKELY to increase it by getting played in spots where he should contribute. I think they are probably a full win short just with Wells.

Overbay is the same thing at a lower level – he currently has 0.6 fWAR and projects at 0.1 – I think holiding at 0.6 is more likely, and a small increase is certainly possible as he might play only against selected righties going forward. So the Yankees projection perhaps deserves another half win. It has Hafner earning no further WAR this year, Cervelli the same, though both have been productive so far.

Of course, it is certainly possible that the players who are returning, and to whom the projections give the bulk of playing time in the second half, will suck. A-Rod, Jeter, Granderson, Teixeira all have yet to show that they will contribute, and any or all could be close to replacement level, and they WILL be given a chance to play even if they are doing poorly (Granderson is ALREADY playing and doing poorly) but the analysts appear to have that covered: here are the PA projections and fWAR projections for these returning players: A-Rod 76 0.3, Jeter 202 0.7, Granderson 278 1.1, Teixeira 202 1.1.

I think the new tool is fun, and I love to play around with it. But I think the Yankee hitters will be better than this.

But today will be a true test, of sorts. They play a true double-header (one admission) starting at noon with the second game to immediately follow. This is because they were in Kansas City yesterday, Cleveland today and New York tomorrow, courtesy of back-to-back rainouts April 10-11 during the Yankees only scheduled trip to Cleveland.

And in that double-header, they will start Phelps (1-1 5.02) their #6 starter (with Nova on the DL) and Vidal Nuno, making his first ML start (and only his 2nd ML appearance) having pitched 3 scoreless innings in a 9-1 loss to Houston on April 29, and I believe he hasn’t pitched anywhere since. He has made 4 starts in AAA allowing just 4 runs in 23 IP, with 26 Ks and only 2 BBs.

So the Indians, fresh off 9 wins in 11 games and claiming a share of the AL Central lead with the Tigers (by beating them 2 of 3), should be solid favorites: they start Justin Masterson (do you think the Red Sox wish they still had HIM?) at 5-2 3.67 and Trevor Bauer at 1-1 2.70. They have scored 188 runs (to the Yanks’ 157) and so you have to think that they have a better offense AND better pitching AND only came from Detroit AND slept in their own beds AND are playing at home.

From a Yankee fan’s perspective, then, a split would be delicious, and there has to be a very good chance that NY will lose both games. But I have been expecting them to lose all year, and they have just kept finding a way to win. They are currently on a 5-game winning streak (compiled against two of the surprise winning teams of the young season, Colorado and Kansas City) and have a 2-game lead on a suddenly-human Red Sox team that has dropped 8 of 10, and 1 game over an Orioles team whose lofty position is probably just as surprising as the Yanks’.

It is interesting to note that Cool Standings, which has not been impressed with the Yankees all year, finally has them over 50% to make the postseason for the first time in 2013. Of course, if they lose both games (and possibly even if they split, as long as Boston or Baltimore wins) they will be back below 50% – this time of year the projections are pretty volatile.

As both Indian pitchers are right-handed, the Yankees will likely play an outfield of Wells, Gardner and Ichiro, an infield of Overbay, Cano, Nix and Nelson, with Stewart catching one game and Romine the other. Travis Hafner will likely DH in both games. The Yankees placed Eduardo Nunez on the DL yesterday and recalled infielder Alberto Gonzalez to take his spot, but Gonzalez is a right-handed hitter so he will be unlikely to replace either Nix or Nelson, though he might get a game in for Nelson at third, since he (Nelson) has not hit at all as a Yankee (5 for 30). Not a lineup to scare you much, though better than their lineup against left-handers.

Things may be looking up for NY, though: rumor has it that Curtis Granderson could rejoin by the end of the week, and Mark Teixeira, though moved yesterday to the 60-day DL, appears to be on track for early June. Nunez DL designation is retroactive 5 days, so he is eligible to come off around May 22 and may well do so, though he didn’t hit before he went ON the DL, so that may not help much. And Kevin Youkilis, himself an injury-replacement and then injured, may also be close to starting a rehab assignment, and could be back by the end of the month.

Somehow a lineup of Stewart/Romine, Teixeira, Cano, Nix/Nunez, Youkilis, Gardner, Granderson, Ichiro/Wells, Hafner/Wells looks a bit more formidable. But the test comes first.

It’s not as if the replacement players are really tearing it up. OK, Wells is, a little, but he may be the Right-handed DH player anyway. But Nunez (now also hurt), Nix and Nelson have hit nothing, Overbay, Boesch and Francisco are all replacement-level players, and not one is playing better than that. Stewart has hit better than expected, but OPS 645 isn’t going to carry anyone. And of course A-Rod, Jeter, Teixeira, Granderson, Cervelli, Youkilis, Nova and Pineda are all on the DL. You can’t quite field a team from their DL, but it’s close.

So A-Rod probably won’t be a great player, but he’ll be better than Chris Nelson, right? And Jeter may be approaching his expiration date, but you’d expect him to be better than Nix. And Granderson strikes out too much and his average has declined, but compared to Francisco and Boesch that would be an upgrade. Teixeira over Overbay, ditto. So if they can win with the CURRENT guys, they should surely win with THOSE guys.

Well, not so fast. Their continued winning depends on them continuing to get the excellent pitching they have been getting. They only SCORED 6 runs in 3 Coors Field games, but they also only ALLOWED 5 runs in those games. Kuroda has been outstanding, the rest of the rotation quite good, and they have gotten 15 innings of 1.84 from Adam Warren, who may be the future but is unlikely to be the present. Mariano has saved all 13 games he has been given a save opportunity in, allowing runs only in two in which he had a 2-run cushion. Can we expect all this to continue? Not likely.

So I plan to enjoy it while it lasts, and hope that the real Yankees will be back before the Cinderella Yankees turn into pumpkins.

Overall, in 14 ML games yesterday, 89 total runs were scored, which is only 3.18/team/game. If you consider 9 runs to be an average total between the two teams, there were two games over average, two average, and TEN below average. And consider this: TWELVE of the 28 teams in action scored 2 or fewer runs, four of them winning games. No team scored over 7 runs, which is VERY unusual, and one of the teams to score six lost the game to the only team to score seven.

I don’t know if this is a trend, or an aberration. But it IS interesting.

I don’t want to talk about any of that. What I noticed, as I watched this game, was it seemed every time an Oakland batter came to the plate he had a .400 OBP. Since Moneyball was all about OBP, and Oakland was the home of Moneyball, this may not be surprising. But the story of recent A’s teams has been that now that everyone is on to the game, Billy Beane can’t get the good OBP guys anymore, and is looking for a new market inefficiency. this may well be true, and small samples still apply (though they are getting larger, funny how that happens) but I wanted to look up how real my perception was. I have written the above paragraphs FIRST, and will now go look things up.

Well, in the first place, when you look at team batting stats, Oakland is listed first, meaning that they lead MLB in runs scored. So they must be doing SOMETHING right. Last night they got 4 HRs and 4 BBs which is Moneyball to a tee (3 singles was the rest of the offense). It is NOT a pattern for their season, as they are only 18th with 32 HRs after their 4 bombs, but they DO lead the majors with 149 walks, and second place is 129 (Reds) so they lead by PLENTY. They are NOT the OBP leader, as both Texas and Colorado are at .352 (they are .344) but they get to the .344 with a .251 BA, while the other two are both at .385.

In honor of Branch Rickey’s stat Isolated Power (SLG – BA) which measures power much better than SLG, I am calculating Isolated Patience (PAT since ISO is taken for the previous stat) which is OBP-BA. It is not a pure stat, because (unlike SLG) OBP has a different denominator than BA, as SF, SH, HBP and BB are added into it. In fact, it is possible to have a NEGATIVE PAT, if you have fewer walks than sacrifices, so your OBP is LOWER than your BA. No big deal.

Oakland currently has a team PAT of 93 (I leave out the .0 as this isn’t a percentage of anything). Some other cases: Texas and Colorado, the OBP leaders, have identical marks of 67. Miami, with the lowest BA in baseball, is also at 63. The Yankees, which I think of as a pretty patient team, is at 69. The Red Sox, who until swept this weekend by Texas had the game’s best record, are at 79, and so is Minnesota (with one of the game’s worst teams).

How well does this correlate with winning? I am too lazy to calculate it, but obviously it does, but not as well as, say, OPS. But the point is that Oakland, which was supposed to have pitching but NOT much offense, has found a way, through patience, to overcome mediocre batting averages and mediocre power, to put runs on the board in prolific numbers, so far this season.

And it was my imagination, though no by so much: only 3 players in last night’s lineup started the game with an OBP over .400, but 3 more were over .370, and the team DOES get on base a ton. And that’s why they score so many runs.

Athletics outfielder Coco Crisp and left-hander Brett Anderson have been put on the 15-day disabled list.
Oakland selected the contract of catcher Luke Montz from Sacramento of the Pacific Coast League and recalled right-hander Dan Straily from the Triple-A team before Wednesday’s series finale against the Los Angeles Angels

Yes, that is the same Dan Straily that started Monday in place of Anderson (who has been battling a sprained ankle) and lasted 4 and a third innings of the 19 inning marathon where Anderson pitched 5 and a third innings in extra-innings before leaving the game limping on that ankle. The same Dan Straily who was optioned to Triple-A the next day in favor calling up an extra reliever to help with an exhausted Oakland bullpen. Yet, Anderson was not placed on the disabled list at the time.

Under normal circumstances a player must stay a minimum of ten days in the minor leagues before being recalled to the big league club. The lone exception to this rule is that a player does not have to spend the requisite time in the minors if the recall to the big leagues is the result of an injury to another player. When Anderson was placed on the DL the next day, the A’s were able to recall Straily even though he had not been in the minors the requisite 10 days

So, in this case, Straily gets called up to start in place of an injured player, gets sent back down because he’s not a reliever, and then gets called back up when the injured player is officially put on the disabled list after the game AFTER the game he is injured.

The end result, the A’s got an extra day to evaluate Anderson’s health without being punished. Being a starter, they weren’t going to need him for a couple of days anyway. This way they could call up extra relief help without having to make an immediate decision on Anderson’s health.

Given the sometimes dubious use of the disabled list, could this be used deviously to a team’s advantage? Probably not one to the extent of the complaints of Toronto’s waiver wire use, but Oakland’s apparent use of it to buy extra time to evaluate Anderson is some evidence what seemed to me to be a slight stretching of the rules.

Remember that (in theory) a C in two categories and a B in the other should result in a B overall. Not really, but that is the intent behind the metric: what would a team with THIS (offense, rotation, bullpen) do if it had an average team in all other respects. So a C+ offense, B- rotation, and C- bullpen (Yankees) yields an A overall result. Not the system’s finest hour, but not unreasonable, either. And other results are more reasonable: a C offense, F rotation and A+ bullpen (Twins) gives a C result. And if you factor in that the offensive ratings, given the math above, are a little low then the ratings work better than ever. Give every team a 1/3 grade increase (make a minus no tag, no tag into a plus, and bump a plus up a grade with a minus) and the numbers are more reasonable still.

The only adjustment to the offense ratings I can think of would be to make 4 runs scored 2/3 of a win or some such, and if the trend continues all year I will do that. But I think run scoring IS up a tick, and that warmer weather will see it come through.

Anyway, here are the results. Comments welcome, as always.

They have scored 114 runs in 23 games, 4.96 per game, one of the best offenses in baseball. They have allowed 83 runs, 3.61 per game, one of the stingiest pitching/defense combos in baseball. Their Pythagorean record “deserved so to speak” is 15-8, essentially what they have actually done, so they haven’t really been lucky. Well, yes they have, but not in that way, at all.

Their offense has scored 5 or more runs in 13 of 23 games, and 4 in two more, giving them a deserved record, for offense only, of 14-9 which my report card system scores as A. Their rotation by my metric deserves a record of 13.85-9.15 which my report card system scores as an A-. And perhaps more impressive, in 23 starts their starting pitcher had a game score below 40 exactly ONCE (the 13-0 shellacking by the A’s of Aceves). Their pitching often dominates, and when it doesn’t it keeps them in the game. Their relief pitching  scores at 13/65 which grades out to a B. But of course the theory of the grades is that an A offense will produce an A record with average pitching and defense, an A rotation will produce an a result with an average offense and bullpen. So when ALL the indicators are positive, you get 16-7.

They are not without holes: Stephen Drew has been AWFUL (.119/.229/.190 wOBA .201) coming off an injury, but Iglesias has been amazing as his substitute (.450/.476/.550 wOBA .450). Of course this is unsustainable (BABIP .529) but those hits still COUNT, and he has contributed with both bat and glove. So the Sox haven’t had, on balance, a hole at shortstop, either in the field or at bat. Jackie Bradley walked 3 times on opening day, but that was the high point of a brief stay in the majors, as he returned to AAA with the impressive line of .097/.263/.129 and the OBP is inflated, as those 3 BBs were half of his total. But Nava has played nearly every game, though he doesn’t show as the “regular” yet at any position (soon left field replacing Bradley) and has a .390 wOBA.

One very interesting point about the Sox offense this year is underscored by the paragraph above: if you take the player with the most PAs at each position, you get Saltalamacchia, Napoli, Pedroia, Drew, Middlebrooks, Bradley, Ellsbury, Victorino and Gomes. The bench, defined as every player with a PA who is not a pitcher and not on the above list, is Nava, Ross, Ortiz, Ciriaco, Iglesias and Carp. The OPS+ numbers for the first nine, in order, are 105, 141, 118, 16, 67, 12, 107, 87, 69. The OPS+ for the last six, all but Nava small samples I admit, are 148, 115, 270, 100, 179, 303. Adding together the batting line of the first nine you get .245/.314/.391 which is hardly an offensive juggernaut. But if you add the bottom six you get .342/.389/.621 ! This offense has been carried by the “bench” (David Ortiz, of course, is NOT the bench, he has 0.5 fWAR in just 6 games, but started the season on the DL). This will change when 1) some of these players come down to earth and 2) Bradley, Drew and Gomes become part of the bench instead of the starters. But still.

Buchholz and Lester have been amazing, and the rest of the rotation solid, except for Aceves. And even Aceves with his 8.66 ERA has two starts in the 40s and one disaster (15).In the bullpen Bailey, Tazawa and Uehara have all been lights out, the rest of the pen not quite as stellar.

Is this team for real? Well, the initial analysis still somewhat holds: Ellsbury is on pace for 7 wins, if he can stay healthy and keep it up. Victorino has a fielding-fueled 0.8 fWAR but is not really hitting, he will NOT be a 5-win player. Pedroia is like Ellsbury, if he can do this all year, and he has the talent though often not the stamina, he will be amazing, BUT. Ortiz has been phenomenal for 6 games. But Iglesias and his .529 BABIP is THIRD on the team (Ortiz .588, Carp .615) and those numbers will surely settle. Napoli is a legitimate hitter at first, and Middlebrooks will get better at third, but Gomes is a joke, and Nava is not likely anywhere near this good. So the offense is likely to come down to earth a bunch. The rotation may BE real, as Lester and Buchholz are both legitimate top-of-rotation guys, but Aceves has NEVER thrived as a starter, and Doubront is in the “young pitchers can break your heart” class – who knows what you’ll get from him? Ryan Dempster, then, is the wild card – he has been a good pitcher in the past, but is 36 and was bad (ERA+ 89) last year in Texas, with a good team, but GREAT (180) in 2011 with a bad team in a hitter’s park. So who knows?

I picked them to win 79 games, a .488 winning percentage. If I was right in their talent level, and they played that way for the rest of the season, they would win 68 games the rest of the season, which added to the 16 they have already won would put them at 84 and right in the middle of my projected pennant race. If they can play just .500 ball the balance of the year they’ll win 86 which could win the division. So, while I haven’t actually changed my mind about what kind of team they are, the hot start has indeed put them in a position to contend.

Ugh.

Catcher – John Jaso – Jaso is 29, earned 2.6 fWAR last year, and 0.3 so far this year in about 1/8 of a season, so he is basically doing just what he did last year. In fact, his production is quite a bit below his career norm (wOBA .304 instead of .342) though of course 1/3 of his career was last year. It is hardly a stretch to suggest he will actually be better the rest of the year than so far.

First Base – Brandon Moss – Moss is also 29, with about the same playing time overall as Jaso, but he only played 84 games in 2012, and was a monster in those games: his wOBA was .402, whereas his career is .323 including those 300 PAs. So his current .374 is either way high (50+ over career) or somewhat a falloff from 2012, take your pick. His fWAR to date is 0.7 which projects to over 5 – on the other hand his 2012 of 2.3 in 40% of a season ALSO projects over 5. He is a solid defender, and if healthy appears to project as a possible 4-win player. He is currently at .302/.397/.444.

Second Base – Eric Sogard – Sogard is 27, and came into the year with 68 career games of replacement value. He has had 60 PAs and his .313 wOBA plus marginal fielding has netted him 0.0 fWAR. So he is on track, and certainly not playing over his head. Most projection systems pencil him in at about 0.5 WAR for the year.

Shortstop – Jed Lowrie – He is also 29, and was acquired from Houston in the off-season along with reliever Rodriguez for three prospects. He was great for Boston in 55 games in 2010 (1.9 fWAR, .396 wOBA, average fielder), was terrible for them in 88 games in 2011 (0.1 fWAR, .298 wOBA, marginal fielder), and solid for Houston in 97 games last year (2.6 fWAR, .336 wOBA, plus fielder). So far this year his bat has been wonderful in 21 games (.434 wOBA) and his glove bad (as many fielding runs below average in 21 games as in 88 games in 2011) but earning him 0.9 fWAR to date. This projects to almost 7 for the season, so he is one of the early outliers. Still, he IS a fairly solid player, not old, and could be breaking out, though his batting is BABIP fueled (career .290, currently .414). Expect regression.

Third Base – Josh Donaldson – Originally a catcher, and 27 years old, Donaldson entered 2013 with only 89 ML games, 330 PAs, about a half-season’s worth. He shows as an above-average defender at third, with a .341 wOBA which scores at 0.7 fWAR. This is a much better pace than 2012 (1.5 in 300 PAs) and projects him as a 5-war player as well. I’ll believe it when I see it – there is nothing I can really see to make me expect this, though in 2012 he did tear up AAA pitching, when not sucking for Oakland

Left Field - Yoenis Cespedes - It was a shock when Oakland won the bidding war for him: $36M for four years. He is also 27 (do you detect a pattern?). His bat (.368 wOBA) was great in 2012, but his fielding was poor, and his 2.9 fWAR would have been 4.0 with an average glove. He has actually been much worse this year (wOBA .316) while playing only 11 of 21 games. At 0.3 fWAR the A’s expect (and will probably get) more production from him than he has shown so far.

Center Field – Coco Crisp – Here is the true outlier. Crisp is the old man (at 33 the only non-pitcher on the roster over 30) and he is a “proven” talent – career .325 wOBA. When younger he was a plus fielder, but he has been rated below average for 3 years now in center: good but not great range, a weak arm, and occasionally curious routes. But his BAT has been off-the-charts in 2013: .319/.424/.667 as opposed to established (1150 games) norms of .274/.331/.411. So compared to a career ISO of .137 (which of course includes this year) he currently sports a .348 and a wOBA of .458. He has earned 1.3 fWAR. He has actually been more solid than I realized for Oakland the past three seasons, earning 7.7 fWAR over that span, 2.6 per year. But of course he projects to NINE this year. If you assume he will return to where he has been, he will likely earn perhaps 3 or 3.5 this season, given what he has already done. Back to earth with a crash.

Right Field – Josh Reddick – Josh is the baby of the batting order at 26, and had his breakout season last year, as he earned 4.9 fWAR by posting a decent (.325) wOBA while playing a stellar (+19 runs) right field. So far this year he has played only at replacement level with a .245 wOBA and average fielding.

Designated Hitter – Seth Smith – Well, sort of. Smith has played only 9 games at DH, but at 30 years old and only one season in his career over 1.4 fWAR (2009). He can hit (career wOBA .355) so DH is a good spot for him, but 0.6 fWAR to date (projected to 4+) seems high.

Utility OF - Chris Young – Young is 29, and has 77 PAs (more than Cespedes, Smith or Reddick) though he splits between the 3 OF positions so he doesn’t “qualify” at any of them. But he is hardly an offensive force: career wOBA of .328, this year only .256. fWAR 0.0.

So I don’t get it. This team has scored 119 runs in 21 games, an average of 6.67 per game. But of their 10 most used hitters, you would classify them as five hot (Crisp, Lowrie, Donaldson, Smith, Moss) twoOK (Cespedes, Jaso) and three cold (Young, Reddick, Sogard). Which suggests a good offense, but hardly a great one. Their team wOBA of .342 is outstanding, but the margin is not as much over the competition as the runs scored would suggest.

To some degree, I suppose, they have been lucky – the basic runs created formula (I’m too lazy to apply the more advanced forms) suggests they should have scored 106 runs (still 5/G) instead of 119, which would bring them back to the pack. Part of the deal is that they have had a lot of games in which they scored a LOT of runs: 13 once, 11 twice, 9 twice, 8 thrice, 7 once. The reality of an offense is that it is not linear – a single is not always worth the same fraction of a run. When the hits “bunch” more runs are scored than the run elements allow for. So, by bunching their hits in these blowouts, the A’s score more than you would expect.

Anyway, they have scored a lot of runs. My offense evaluation tool, though, suggests that their offense has earned only a 13-9 record, as it gives no extra credit for those extra runs. And in fact, the A’s have not won a game all year in which they ALLOWED more than 5 runs, so none of the blowouts needed all those runs: no 11-10 wins so far. That is a LITTLE misleading, though, as they are 3-0 when allowing 5 runs (!) which IS a tribute to their offense.

Perhaps the real answer lies here: Oakland is 13-8 so far this young season – that breaks down to 6-0 against Houston and 7-8 against the major league teams.

First, then, the overachievers. According to FanGraphs, 21 major league non-pitchers (can’t call them position players anymore, can we, now that some of them are only hitters?) have already achieved a full fWAR or more. Remember that WAR is sort of a counting stat, in that how much you play has a major role to play, BUT since you can “achieve” negative WAR, your earned WAR is not necessarily forever. Still, better to earn than not, that’s for sure.

The full table is found below. The surprises to me, in order of the level of surprise, are:

Coco Crisp – I think of him as barely replacement level. No power, no discipline, speed but no judgment. Harsh, but that is what I think. So to find him getting on base .420 and NOT by having an off-the-chart lucky batting average (BABIP .359 is high, especially for him, but not unworldly) but by drawing some walks, and a .662 slugging percentage NOT by legging out a few doubles but by hitting home runs, well, I’m blown away. Of course we know that 1) his HRs have BARELY reached the seats and 2) It WILL NOT last, but still.

Torii Hunter – OK, HIS BABIP IS off the charts, .459. I thought he was washed up, but maybe not. He is certainly not only hitting like the Torii Hunter of old, but BETTER than that earlier version.

Carl Crawford – Is he really healthy? The Dodger offense has been putrid, and HE is the highlight, NOT the cause. Will wonders never cease?

There are also 42 players who have “achieved” negative fWAR so far this baseball season. Too long to list, I am going to give you only those whom you would expect to do better:

Adam Dunn – his 2011 was HORRIBLE, his 2012 much better. 2013, so far, is MUCH worse than 2011: his slash line is .101/.151/.246/397 in 73 PA. He’s not walking, he is hitting for marginal power (ISO 145 is not terrible, but not Dunn-esque) and of course he has no value in the field or on the bases. His -0.8 fWAR is exceed only by Aaron Hicks of the Twins who manages to combine a .059/.200/.059/259 batting line with 3.1 runs lost in fielding for an fWAR of -0.9.

Victor Martinez – remember those stories that said that the Tigers signed Fielder when they lost Martinez, but LOOK OUT when Victor is back and they have both of them? Well, he’s back, sort of, and currently mashing .167/.273/.182/455. NO power (ISO of 15 !) and no luck (BABIP .188) and of course, like Dunn, essentially no defensive value, though he is nominally a C/1B. -0.7 fWAR to date.

Matt Kemp – I LOVE Matt Kemp. I thought he was beefed out of an MVP that he deserved, and I thought so BEFORE Braun tested positive for steroids. He is a joy to watch, at bat and in the field. But not so much this year so far: .235/.270/.294/564 and -3.2 fielding runs to boot. Ugh. fWAR -0.3

Honorable mention: Josh Hamilton, the Angels latest big signing (remember Prince Albert’s start a year ago?) at -0.2 fWAR, Ryan Zimmerman -0.3, as well as last year’s “breakout” players Melky Cabrera (-0.2) and Josh Reddick (-0.2).

I nominate Melky and Dunn as the two most likely to continue to suck all year.