Nine more days

Posted by Baseball Bob at 08:51
Feb 052011

A week from Monday, on Valentine’s Day (February 14 for those calendar-challenged among us) those magic words will be uttered “Pitchers and Catchers report”. I can hardly wait.

I have not completed, nor will I come close to completing, the team reports; I doubt I will get to every team. I seem to be able to do about 3 a week, which is already a lot, and even if I do them right up until opening day I will be a couple of teams short; as there is semi-real news to comment on, I expect I will ease up, and quite a few teams may not get graded.

For this reason, I would like to invite the group to make suggestions of teams that you would like to see evaluated, and I will try to accommodate these requests, assuming that there are not too many.  Just comment on this post, and I will review the requests.

Anthony suggested that I document my method of projecting wins (WAR, really) for next year, and I added a paragraph to the Glossary section on the subject. Hans sent links to two pretty technical articles, describing the various ERA predictors (like FIP and xFIP) and extolling a new one, SIERA (Skill Interactive Earned Run Average). If you are interested, you can find them here:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12844

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10027

SIERA is designed to combine the elements of FIP (Walks, Strikeouts, HRs) and xFIP (which normalizes to league HR/FB) with ground-ball and fly-ball rates, and removes the “per nine innings” bias to FIP. (For those interested, since FIP is calculated on BB/9, K/9 and HR/9, it goes up if BABIP goes up, since you have more batters per inning and therefore are vulnerable to more BB and HR, but not strikeouts, as they are bounded by 3/IP max). If SIERA is easily accessible, I may add it to the Glossary and use it in the future.

Bring on the baseball season! Or at least spring training! OK, PRE spring training. I’m ready

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