Minnesota Twins

Posted by Baseball Bob at 18:03
Feb 212011

Season 94-68 A-

The Twins broke from the gate with a 15-8 April and led the division much of the season. They faltered in June, their only losing month, and were actually third at the break, at 46-42, after a seriously poor stretch that saw them go 9-17. They came out after the all-star game playing well, however, and retook first place on August 10 after going 18-7 over that stretch. They were never again in second place, and never led by fewer than 3 games after August 15.

Hitters 80.5-81.5 C

This team had an average offense by my rather lofty standards – very good in the 2010 run environment. They averaged 4.82 R/G, playing in a park that slightly favors pitchers, and only one regular (Span) had an OPS+ lower than 93. Losing Morneau (OPS+ 184) half-way through the season turned out to be only a bump in the road, and Thome at DH (OPS+ 178) had a serious revival at the plate. Youngsters Danny Valencia and Delmon Young blossomed as hitters.

Starters 89.5-72.5 B

Driven by the resurgence of Francisco Liriano, the Twins rotation grew from ordinary to well above average. Liriano did not quite get back to former heights, but served notice that he is still a potential ace, and with Carl Pavano surprising all of us with a very strong season (contract year, anyone?), you get this rating. The other pitchers were all about average starters, but two aces and the rest average gives you a B rotation.

Bullpen 115/465 B

The Twins saw 5 of the seven relievers with the most innings post an A rating by my scale, and they survived the loss of all-star closer Joe Nathan with hardly a hiccough. Jon Rauch started the season as the closer, and did well, and when they traded for Matt Capps and took Rauch’s job away (undeservedly, really) he became the setup man and continued to pitch well, and Capps pitched even better. This team may demonstrate the flaw in my metric: they don’t rate an A because their second-tier pitchers were pretty bad, but I doubt that this cost them many games, as a manager with 5 viable relievers will rarely blow a game pitching someone else who has been ineffective. The rating system worked just like you would want: the team should have been rated B with a B rotation and C hitters, but the B bullpen raised the overall to A-.

Charts

<3 44
3 15
4 24
5 18
6 20
>6 41

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Batter PA OPS wOBA Grade
Denard Span 705 679 .312 D+
Michael Cuddyer 675 753 .329 C
Delmon Young 613 826 .352 B-
Joe Mauer 584 871 .373 B
Jason Kubel 582 750 .326 C
Orlando Hudson 559 710 .320 C-
J.J. Hardy 375 714 .313 C-
Justin Morneau 348 1055 .447 A++++
Jim Thome 340 1039 .437 A+++
Danny Valencia 322 799 .351 B-
Nick Punto 288 615 .280 D-
Alexi Casilla 170 726 .327 C
Drew Butera 155 533 .237 F
Jason Repko 146 670 .304 D+
Brendan Harris 120 446 .210 F
Matt Tolbert 100 672 .290 D

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Starter Games Innings ERA W/L Deserved
Carl Pavano 32 220.2 3.75 17 – 11 21.5 – 10.5
Francisco Liriano 31 191.2 3.62 14 – 10 19 – 12
Scott Baker 29 170.1 4.49 12 – 9 14.75 – 14.25
Kevin Slowey 28 152.2 4.54 13 – 6 14.25 – 13.75
Nick Blackburn 26 157.2 5.30 10 – 11 11.5 – 14.5
Brian Duensing 13 85.2 3.05 7 – 2 7 – 6
Glen Perkins 1 4.2 7.71 0 – 1 0 – 1
Jeff Manship 1 6.0 3.00 0 – 0 .75 – .25
Matt Fox 1 5.2 3.18 0 – 0 .75 – .25

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Reliever G IP ERA Val Gr Effective Ineffective yikes YIKES!
Matt Guerrier 74 71.0 3.17 21 A- 51 17 5 1
Jesse Crain 71 68.0 3.04 28 A+ 53 12 5 1
Jon Rauch 59 57.2 3.12 22 A+ 43 12 3 1
Alex Burnett 41 47.2 5.29 0 D- 25 9 5 2
Brian Duensing 40 45.0 1.80 22 A+ 31 9 0 0
Ron Mahay 41 33.2 3.44 14 A 29 10 1 1
Jose Mijares 47 32.2 3.31 5 C- 28 15 4 0
Matt Capps 27 27.0 2.00 10 A+ 20 4 3 0
Jeff Manship 12 23.0 5.87 -6 F 4 6 2 0
Glen Perkins 12 17.0 5.29 2 C+ 8 2 2 0
Brian Fuentes 9 9.2 0.00 9 A+ 9 0 0 0
Pat Neshek 11 9.0 5.00 -1 F 5 6 0 0
Anthony Slama 5 4.2 7.71 -4 F 1 3 1 0
Randy Flores 11 3.2 4.91 -5 F 3 8 0 0
Kevin Slowey 2 3.0 0.00 2 A+ 2 0 0 0
Nick Blackburn 2 3.0 12.00 -3 F 0 1 1 0
Rob Delaney 1 1.0 9.00 -1 F 0 1 0 0

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