Seattle Mariners

Posted by Baseball Bob at 18:06
Feb 212011

Summary 61-101 F

It is almost hard to remember, now, but the Mariners in 2009 were 85-77 and traded for Cliff Lee in the expectation of moving into contention in 2010. I predicted that they would fail, and lose more games than they would win, but I didn’t foresee just how far the “mighty” would fall. They hung in the race only briefly (they were tied for first at 11-9), achieved last place by May 1st, and didn’t spend a day in any other the rest of the season. Particularly inept against their own division, they were 7-12 against the Rangers, 6-13 against the A’s and 4-15 against the Angels. A season to forget: they didn’t have a single break-even month.

Lineup 40.5-121.5 F

I didn’t call them hitters, because they were not. The Mariners scored fewer runs (513) than any other ML team, despite playing with the DH in the AL. If they had had average pitching, they would have been worse than the 1962 Mets. They had exactly TWO regulars whose OPS+ was over 100, and of the ones who weren’t, the BEST was 87 (the worst was 44!). And the two over 100 were 34 and 36 years old, so it’s not exactly a platform for the future.

Rotation 90-72 B

Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee were the 1-2 punch intended to lead Seattle to the promised land. And, frankly, they were phenomenal. Hernandez won the Cy Young, and my metric suggests that he probably deserved it, though of course it is not park-adjusted and this is a SERIOUS pitcher’s park. Lee was every bit as good, and Vargas was a fine third starter. Fister is more like a fifth starter, though, and Rowland-Smith was pretty awful.

Bullpen 55/358 C+

The bullpen was no great shakes, though it was above average. League and Aardsma were very good, but the supporting cast was pretty weak. The solid rotation and decent bullpen were so far off-set by the so-called offense that they lost 100 games.

Charts

Runs Times
<3 62
3 31
4 20
5 14
6 10
>6 15

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Batter PA OPS wOBA Grade
Ichiro Suzuki 732 753 .338 C
Chone Figgins 702 646 .302 D
Franklin Gutierrez 629 666 .300 D
Jose Lopez 622 609 .268 F
Casey Kotchman 457 616 .269 F
Josh Wilson 388 572 .263 F
Michael Saunders 327 662 .296 D
Milton Bradley 278 640 .289 D
Adam Moore 218 513 .224 F
Jack Wilson 211 598 .262 F
Rob Johnson 209 574 .261 F
Mike Sweeney 168 765 .340 C+
Matt Tuiasosopo 138 541 .242 F
Ryan Langerhans 132 662 .310 D+
Josh Bard 126 633 .281 D-
Ken Griffey Jr. 108 454 .214 F

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Starter Games Innings ERA W/L Deserved
Felix Hernandez 34 249.2 2.27 13 – 12 26.25 – 7.75
Jason Vargas 31 192.2 3.78 9 – 12 18.5 – 12.5
Doug Fister 28 170.2 4.11 6 – 14 14 – 14
Ryan Rowland-Smith 20 101.1 6.93 1 – 10 5.25 – 14.75
David Pauley 15 85.2 4.29 4 – 9 7.5 – 7.5
Cliff Lee 13 103.2 2.34 8 – 3 10.75 – 2.25
Luke French 13 79.0 4.78 5 – 7 5.25 – 7.75
Ian Snell 8 35.1 6.11 0 – 5 2.5 – 5.5

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Reliever G IP ERA Val Gr Effective Ineffective yikes YIKES!
Brandon League 70 78.2 3.42 22 A 52 11 2 5
David Aardsma 53 49.2 3.44 23 A+ 42 4 6 1
Garrett Olson 35 37.2 4.54 3 C- 22 8 4 1
Brian Sweeney 24 37.0 3.16 1 D 14 7 3 0
Jamey Wright 28 37.0 3.41 6 B 18 8 2 0
Sean White 38 34.1 5.24 2 D+ 23 12 0 3
Shawn Kelley 22 25.0 3.96 6 B+ 16 3 2 1
Chris Seddon 14 22.1 5.64 -2 F 8 3 2 1
Kanekoa Texeira 16 18.2 5.30 0 D- 10 2 4 0
Jesus Colome 12 17.0 5.29 -3 F 6 4 1 1
Ian Snell 4 11.0 7.36 -3 F 1 2 1 0
Mark Lowe 11 10.1 3.48 2 B- 7 3 1 0
Chad Cordero 9 9.2 6.52 -3 F 4 3 2 0
Luke French 3 8.2 5.19 -1 F 1 2 0 0
Ryan Rowland-Smith 7 8.0 4.50 -2 F 3 3 1 0
Dan Cortes 4 5.1 3.38 1 B+ 3 0 1 0
David Pauley 4 4.2 0.00 4 A+ 4 0 0 0
Anthony Varvaro 4 4.0 11.25 -1 F 2 1 1 0

2 Responses to “Seattle Mariners”

  1. How is the pitcher’s deserved record calculated again? Felix Hernandez deserved record is basically GS50+ as wins and <50GS as a loss, but I know that isn't what it's based on.

    • It IS sort of that: GS 60 and over are wins. GS 39 and below are losses. GS 50-59 are 0.75 wins and GS 40-49 are 0.25 wins. So if your 40s and 50s match up, then it turns out to be just GS over 50 are wins, but if you have a lot more 50s than 40s it is not quite that, and if you have more 40s than 50s you get a few extra partial wins. Essentially, it is based (as is the hitting metric) on the assumption that 4.5 runs is the midpoint – if a team scores 5 it mostly wins, and if it scores 4 it has a chance. Similarly with starters, if a pitcher throws a 50 he mostly wins, and a 40 he has a chance. Below 4 runs the offense didn’t do its job, and below 40 a starter didn’t do his job.

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