Toronto Blue Jays

Posted by Baseball Bob at 18:07
Feb 212011

Season 85-77 C+

In another division, they might have contended. They went 24-30 against the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, and if they had played those extra games against, say, a Central rival they might have won 90 games, and it might have been enough. As it was, 8 games over .500 was only good enough to settle into fourth place in June, and never escape again. They hit a LOT of homers, and on any given day they could maul you, but overall they just weren’t good enough in this toughest of all baseball environments.

Hitters 74-88 D

There are those (my friend Brian was one) who contend that any offense that hits a lot of homers is a good offense. When playing computer simulations, he ALWAYS went for the power hitters, even those who never got on base (Joe Carter). Well, the Blue Jays hit a lot of homers (257) but were not, actually, a good offensive team. Jose Bautista either had a breakout season or one of the great flukes of all-time (ask me again in 5 years) and was terrific, but the overpaid and now traded Vernon Wells was the ONLY other above-average hitter on the team. FIVE other guys (Buck, Overbay, Hill, Encarnacion and Lind) hit 20+ HRs, and not ONE of them had a better-than average offensive season. Why? Because as a team they were 12th of 14 in OBP, and 13th of 14 in walks drawn. All those HRs would have been more effective (ask Earl Weaver) if there had been more men on base when they were hit.

Rotation 90-72 B

A year ago the Blue Jays rotation had the best ERA in the AL, but they didn’t hit at all and wound up average. This year they hit somewhat more, but their rotation lost one of its good guys (Roy Halladay) – they pitched quite well anyway, better than I expected, but Ricky Romero is no Halladay. Romero (25) has a bright future, and Brett Cecil (23) shows promise. Shaun Marcum (28) was great but it seems unlikely that he is really this good, and the other two guys (Morrow, 24 and Rzepczynski, 24) have some growing to do. But this is a YOUNG rotation, under team control, and is likely to get better.

Bullpen 90/455 B-

The bullpen was not as young, has little upside, and contains no one of note. But still they more than got the job done: an offense at D and a rotation at B should produce an 81-81 record, but the bullpen was good enough to raise that to 85-77. Expecting 34-year-olds Shawn Camp, and Scott Downs to do this again is unrealistic, but for 2010 the patchwork bullpen did itself proud.

Charts

Runs Times
<3 39
3 33
4 14
5 22
6 19
>6 35

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Batter PA OPS wOBA Grade
Jose Bautista 683 995 .422 A++
Vernon Wells 646 846 .362 B
Alex Gonzalez 640 741 .319 C-
Adam Lind 613 712 .309 D+
Lyle Overbay 608 762 .332 C
Aaron Hill 580 665 .291 D
Fred Lewis 480 746 .331 C
John Buck 437 803 .345 C+
Edwin Encarnacion 367 787 .339 C+
Travis Snider 319 767 .331 C
Jose Molina 183 681 .303 D+
John McDonald 163 727 .310 D+
DeWayne Wise 118 675 .304 D+
Mike McCoy 90 511 .246 F

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Starter Games Innings ERA W/L Deserved
Ricky Romero 32 210.0 3.73 14 – 9 20.5 – 11.5
Shaun Marcum 31 195.1 3.64 13 – 8 21 – 10
Brett Cecil 28 172.2 4.22 15 – 7 15.75 – 12.25
Brandon Morrow 26 146.1 4.49 10 – 7 15 – 11
Marc Rzepczynski 12 62.2 5.03 4 – 4 4.5 – 7.5
Dana Eveland 9 44.2 6.45 3 – 4 3.25 – 5.75
Jesse Litsch 9 46.2 5.79 1 – 5 3.75 – 5.25
Brian Tallet 5 27.1 5.60 1 – 2 2 – 3
Shawn Hill 4 20.2 2.61 1 – 2 2 – 2
Brad Mills 3 15.1 5.28 1 – 0 1 – 2
Kyle Drabek 3 17.0 4.76 0 – 3 1.25 – 1.75

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Reliever G IP ERA Val Gr Effective Ineffective yikes YIKES!
Shawn Camp 70 72.1 2.99 22 A 50 13 6 1
Casey Janssen 56 68.2 3.67 10 C+ 37 12 6 1
Jason Frasor 69 63.2 3.68 16 B 47 15 5 2
Scott Downs 67 61.1 2.64 21 A 46 18 2 1
Kevin Gregg 63 59.0 3.51 18 A- 44 14 3 2
Brian Tallet 29 49.2 6.84 -8 F 14 10 3 2
David Purcey 33 34.0 3.71 13 A+ 25 5 2 1
Josh Roenicke 16 19.0 5.68 0 D- 10 3 2 1
Rommie Lewis 14 18.2 6.75 -1 F 8 4 1 1
Jesse Carlson 20 13.2 4.61 2 C- 12 6 2 0
Brad Mills 4 7.0 6.43 -1 F 2 1 1 0
Jeremy Accardo 5 6.2 8.10 0 D- 3 1 1 0
Robert Ray 3 3.2 2.45 -1 F 1 2 0 0
Taylor Buchholz 2 2.0 0.00 2 A+ 2 0 0 0
Merkin Valdez 2 1.1 20.25 -3 F 0 1 1 0
Marc Rzepczynski 2 1.0 0.00 0 D- 1 1 0 0

2 Responses to “Toronto Blue Jays”

  1. I don’t see Jose Bautista coming anywhere near his 2010 season again. Remember to update us after those 5 years.

    • I would tend to agree – it FEELS like a fluke. There is really no precedent for such a large power surge – even Brady Anderson is not that good a comp, and of course his season WAS a fluke. Still, until he fails to do it again we can’t ASSUME that he can’t/won’t. I was interested that Bill James projects him to hit 34 HRs, which is still WAY more than any other season than 2010. Marcel thinks 30, which sounds more likely to me. Cairo has him at 33. I think he might well be in the low 20s, but we shall see. Here, in my opinion, is the key stat: HR/FB% for the past 5 seasons: 11.6%, 7.9%, 13.8%, 12.3%, 21.7%. So you can see what happened: his % of fly balls went up a bit (he was ALWAYS a fly ball hitter), he got lots more playing time (the only other season of even 500 PAs was the year his HR/FB was 7.9%) and his fly balls were flying out at an unprecedented rate.

      To duplicate this season, then, he needs to do three things: 1) stay healthy so that again he approaches 700 PAs, 2) continue to hit fly balls at an accelerated pace, and 3) have his fly balls leave the yard at nearly twice the ML average. I think the first is likely, the second is somewhat less likely, but altogether possible, and the third is quite unlikely. I figure he will have perhaps 600 PAs, lower his FB% from 54 down to maybe 48, and have his HR/FB regress to a normal rate, say 12%. The combination of 686, 54%, 21.7% produced 54 HRS (FB% is only for balls in play, not counting walks and strikeouts). 600, 48%, 12% actually yields only 23 HRs!

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