Philadelphia Phillies

Posted by Baseball Bob at 18:08
Feb 212011

Season 97-65 A (Best record in MLB)

They led MLB in wins, losing the NLCS to eventual World Champion SF, and yet, they struggled. They had no month with a losing record, but in the first half were only 47-40. They led the division throughout April and May, but fell behind in June and trailed by 4½ on June 20, when they were just 35-32, and they were in third place behind the Braves and Mets. Falling behind by as many as 7 games (July 22), they traded for Oswalt, and had an 8-game win streak in late July to reclaim 2nd place, but still trailed Atlanta by 3 as September dawned. They blistered the stretch run, going 21-6 in September to win going away.

Hitting 76.75-85.25 D+

They didn’t do it with hitting! And remember, these are non-park-adjusted numbers in a great hitter’s park. This was a BAD offense. Werth (now gone) was great, and Howard and Utley were good, as always, though not up to standard. But Rollins, Polanco, Victorino and Ibanez were all average hitters, and this offense did not put up a lot of meaningful runs, though they had 52 games of 7 or more (but 51 of 3 or fewer). My runs projection post didn’t lie: this team is NOT likely to have good offensive numbers.

Rotation 99.25-62.75 A

And this, of course, is WITHOUT Cliff Lee, and with only 1/3 of a season of Roy Oswalt. Oswalt was truly amazing (deserved 11-1!) but Happ, whom he replaced, was almost as good for Houston. Halladay and Hamels, of course, were great all year, and Blanton was an excellent #5, nearly a league-average starter. Only Kendrick was below-average (Jamie Moyer, amazingly, was not, at age 107) and remember that these numbers are not park-adjusted, either.

Bullpen 103/451 B

The Dr. Jekyll version of Brad Lidge showed up, when he wasn’t hurt, and Ryan Madsen and the ageless Jose Contreras carried a surprisingly good bullpen. With the starters as good as they were, the bullpen logged only 417 IP, one of the lowest totals in recent years, and they were solid. Again, the report card ratings work, as the rotation deserved a 99-win season, the hitters dragged that down a bit but the bullpen dragged it up again, and they won 97 games.

Charts

Runs Times
<3 51
3 24
4 8
5 17
6 10
>6 52

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Batter PA OPS wOBA Grade
Jayson Werth 652 920 .397 A
Shane Victorino 648 756 .339 C+
Raul Ibanez 636 793 .341 C+
Ryan Howard 620 858 .367 B
Placido Polanco 602 725 .323 C
Chase Utley 511 832 .373 B
Carlos Ruiz 433 847 .366 B
Jimmy Rollins 394 694 .317 C-
Wilson Valdez 363 666 .294 D
Ben Francisco 197 768 .345 C+
Greg Dobbs 176 582 .256 F
Brian Schneider 147 729 .324 C
Juan Castro 140 470 .211 F
Ross Gload 138 812 .348 C+
Roy Halladay 95 292 .132 F

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Starter Games Innings ERA W/L Deserved
Cole Hamels 33 208.2 3.06 12 – 11 22.25 – 10.75
Roy Halladay 33 250.2 2.44 21 – 10 24.5 – 8.5
Kyle Kendrick 31 177.2 4.81 11 – 10 13.5 – 17.5
Joe Blanton 28 174.2 4.74 9 – 6 13.75 – 14.25
Jamie Moyer 19 111.2 4.84 9 – 9 10 – 9
Roy Oswalt 12 81.2 1.65 7 – 1 11 – 1
J.A. Happ 3 15.1 1.76 1 – 0 1.75 – 1.25
Vance Worley 2 10.0 1.80 0 – 1 1.75 – .25
Nelson Figueroa 1 5.0 3.60 0 – 0 .75 – .25

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Reliever G IP ERA Val Gr Effective Ineffective yikes YIKES!
Chad Durbin 64 68.2 3.80 17 B+ 44 13 7 0
Jose Contreras 67 56.2 3.34 29 A+ 52 10 2 3
Ryan Madson 55 53.0 2.55 23 A+ 41 10 4 0
David Herndon 47 52.1 4.30 7 C 30 12 4 1
Danys Baez 51 47.2 5.48 4 D+ 32 11 7 1
Brad Lidge 50 45.2 2.96 17 A 36 10 3 1
J.C. Romero 60 36.2 3.68 11 B- 37 20 3 0
Nelson Figueroa 12 21.0 3.43 4 A 9 1 2 0
Antonio Bastardo 25 18.2 4.34 1 D 14 9 2 0
Mike Zagurski 8 7.0 10.29 -3 F 4 2 1 1
Andrew Carpenter 1 3.0 9.00 -1 F 0 1 0 0
Kyle Kendrick 2 3.0 0.00 2 A+ 2 0 0 0
Vance Worley 3 3.0 0.00 3 A+ 3 0 0 0
Scott Mathieson 2 1.2 10.80 -4 F 0 0 2 0
Joe Blanton 1 1.0 18.00 -2 F 0 0 1 0
Nate Robertson 2 1.0 54.00 -4 F 0 1 0 1
Roy Oswalt 1 1.0 9.00 -1 F 0 1 0 0

One Response to “Philadelphia Phillies”

  1. It’s awesome to see the projections work out. I don’t remember their bullpen being that good or the offense that bad. Dominic Brown has big shoes to fill.

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