Mar 282011

Major Changes

Yes. The Marlins changed 4 of 8 regulars, 1 starter and 3 of 6 relievers, not counting bench players. They retained Ramirez and Stanton, their two best players, and Coglan and Sanchez, two young players. Of the departing players, only Uggla made a significant contribution: Paulino, Cantu and Ross will not be missed. The Marlins signed Javier Vazquez (former Yankee great?) and John Buck to free agent contracts, acquired Infante to play second (in the Uggla deal) and also signed (former Yankee) reliever Randy Choate to be their lefty no-out specialist.

Hitters 2010 C 2011 B-

The offense looks improved, despite the loss of Uggla (best 2B in the NL last year). Buck is an upgrade, Hanley figures to bounce back, and you don’t have to project much of a season from Murphy, Coglan and Morrison to expect an improved offense. And of course, the system expects Stanton to regress, but he is just 21 (!) and already showed he can hit ML pitching. Based on history, it is much more likely that he goes from 2.8 WAR to 6 in his age-21 season than that he goes back to 1.7.

Starters 2010 B- 2011 C+

The rotation appears to be Johnson and the four dwarves. Well, I suppose that Vazquez could continue his on-again, off-again career: he bounced back after his FIRST Yankee debacle. And only Vazquez is on the wrong side of 30, so the rotation could surprise. Johnson is a great pitcher, but I don’t see greatness in any of these others.

Bullpen 2010 B- 2011 C

Last year’s bullpen got double-digit contributions (by my metric) from only five relievers: Hensley, Badenhop, Nunez, Sanches, and Veras. The 5 totaled 109, and the team’s total relief effort totaled 91 – everyone else was AWFUL. Three of the 5 (Badenhop, Sanches and Veras) are gone, 58 of the 109. Replacing them are Ryan Webb (who produced 12 for San Diego), Randy Choate (who produced 17 for Tampa Bay) and Mike Dunn (who produced 10 for the Braves). On paper, then, these three were nearly as effective – in reality, you have to like the three departees better, and I see a marked decline in the Marlins 2011 bullpen.

Overall 2010 C 2011 C

And so, you wind up where you started! The Marlins plusses and minuses basically cancel out, and you can expect another ho-hum campaign from them, hovering around .500. I project them at 80-82.

Charts

Player Position Age 2011 2010
John Buck Catcher 30 1.6 0.6 Paulino
Gaby Sanchez First Base 27 0.4 0.7
Omar Infante Second Base 29 2.0 3.7 Uggla
Donnie Murphy Third Base 28 0.5 0.1 Cantu
Hanley Ramirez Shortstop 27 6.0 3.5
Logan Morrison Left Field 23 1.5 0.5 Coglan
Chris Coghlan Center Field 25 1.1 0.4 Ross
Mike Stanton Right Field 21 1.7 2.8
14.8 12.3

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Josh Johnson Starting Pitcher 27 5.8 6.4
Javier Vazquez Starting Pitcher 34 2.0 0.7 Robertson
Ricky Nolasco Starting Pitcher 28 1.3 1.5
Chris Volstad Starting Pitcher 24 1.1 1.4
Anibal Sanchez Starting Pitcher 27 2.0 3.0
12.2 13.0

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Ryan Webb Relief Pitcher 25 0.3 0.3 Badenhop
Randy Choate Relief Pitcher 35 0.3 1.3 Sanches
Mike Dunn Relief Pitcher 25 0.5 0.6 Veras
Edward Mujica Relief Pitcher 26 0.0 0.2
Clay Hensley Relief Pitcher 31 1.5 2.4
Leo Nunez Closer 27 1.0 1.2
3.6 6.0

One Response to “2011 Projection – Florida Marlins”

  1. I’m a fan of the Florida Marlins…hope they do well this year! I got a few tickets from Total Tickets to the games this year. If anyone is interested here is the link… http://tinyurl.com/6yud6nd. Great seats! 🙂

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