Mar 282011

2011 NL East Projected Standings

Philadelphia Phillies 90-72           .555

Atlanta Braves          88-74  .542

Florida Marlins         80-82  .494

New York Mets         77-85  .475

Washington Nationals 72-90 .444

Hitters Starters Bullpen Overall
2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010
Phillies D+ C A+ A+ C+ B B A
Braves B+ C- C+ A C A B- B+
Marlins B- C C+ B- C B- C C
Mets C D+ D+ B+ C- B+ C- C-
Nationals D+ D D+ C- D B D D-

6 Responses to “2011 Projection – NL East”

  1. I think the Mets are better than this:-) Nice job, Bob! Can’t wait for real baseball!

    Let’s GO METS!

    • Of course you do! What fan can project a team to be bad, unless they are historically bad (see: 1962 Mets)? I kind of hope you are right – it is more fun when the Mets are competitive, even if I root against them (I do, you know).

      One thing I fear: ALL my projections are a bit optimistic – what I mean is that I am pretty sure when you add up all the projections, it will come out over .500! Sad, but to keep that from happening you have to do all the projections BEFORE publishing ANY of them. What fun is that? Then you can adjust until the standings “work”. but it is too much LIKE work.

      Bring on baseball! Enough basketball already!

      • All objective projections will be optimistic when it comes to bad teams because in general teams historically regress to the mean of .500 baseball.

        I think missing Utley hurts a ton for the Phillies. Their offense is not what it once was with Rollins and Victorino and Howard already seem to be worse as well. I predict this pennant will come down to a battle between the Braves rotation and the Phillies batting. Whichever has a better comparative season will dictate the pennant.

        • Quality projections should be optimistic on bad teams, because they regress to the mean, and pessimistic on good teams for the same reason! If your system (my system, I guess) works, your final “projected standings” should come out to .500, in total. I haven’t done the math, but in past years I seem to project the average team to go 83-79, which of course is impossible!

  2. Thanks for everything Bob! Not sure if you are inviting projections from the faithful few/peanut gallery this year, but I am a glutton for ridicule and am offering my best guess for the 2011 season.

    AL East:
    1. Boston Red Sox 95 wins (Their pitching staff is the weak link, and I believe they’ll loose more games in the 9th this year, but still stay on top)
    2. Tampa Bay Rays 91 wins (the nameless few to support Shields and Longoria will stay in it in the toughest division in baseball).
    3. New York Yankees 90 wins (I think the rotation is too suspect this year.)
    4. Toronto Blue Jays 84 wins (Good team but too many games against NY, TB and Boston)
    5. Baltimore Orioles 80 wins (Buck will get them close to a .500 team, but not quite.)

    AL Central:
    1. Minnesota Twins 89 wins (Morneau will be OK, Nathen will be OK, and Mauer will be better than last year)
    2. Chicago White Sox 86 wins (Can’t say much about them, other than they aren’t the Cubs)
    3. Detroit Tigers 85 wins (I think they’ll trade with Chicago all season for second place)
    4. Kansas City Royals 70 wins (It’s the best a AAA team playing the bigs can do)
    5. Cleveland Indians 70 wins (I’d be impressed if they prove me wrong by winning more)

    AL West
    1. Oakland A’s 87 wins (A good rotation with the best bull pen in the league. Now if they can score runs…)
    2. Texas Rangers 85 wins (Josh H is a super player, but I think he’ll be on the DL more and more, and they lost Cliff Lee).
    3. Anaheim/LA/SoCal Angels 77 wins (I honestly don’t know why the did what they did this spring, but it wasn’t improving the team.
    4. Seattle Mariners 75 wins (King Felix will be awesome again, surrounded by mediocrity)

    NL East
    1. Atlanta Braves 91 wins (This will be the best race to watch. Philly and ATL will be at each others necks until Oct.)
    2. Philadelphia Phillies 90 wins (I think they’ll be the best pitching team, but if Utley isn’t back, they’ll miss the 3 or 4 wins they should have had and live with a Wild Card birth in the playoffs)
    3. Florida Marlins 84 wins (Just can’t see the offense producing enough in such a tough division)
    4. Washington Nationals 77 wins (They’ll be heartbreakers all year, but won’t get far. I think they’ll be the funnest to watch though, if you can see them.)
    5. New York Mets 75 wins (Too much turmoil for one team to handle, and I think Rayes (SS) is going to continue to decline.)

    NL Central
    Chicago Cubs 85 wins (This is the most closely matched division, and I think it’ll be the team that doesn’t loose it that wins it, and why can’t that be the Cubs?)
    St Louis Cardinals 83 wins (Mr Pujols will have a human year and wish he signed the contract this fall, and no pitching here to save the day)
    Milwaukee Brewers 83 wins (Fireworks should fly for Prince, and 2 in the rotation will be awesome, but nobody else will produce).
    Houston Astros 79 wins (I want to cheer for this team, but it won’t help them win anymore games than that)
    Pittsburgh Pirates 68 wins (I think it should be illegal the way they don’t even try to improve this team.)

    AL West
    San Fransisco Giants 89 wins (If Wilson only misses a few weeks and the rotation is all that it appears to be, they’ll be tough to beat)
    Los Angeles of Los Angeles Dodgers 88 wins (I can easily see them overtaking SF and winning this, but it will have to be because someone has a better year than last year, and I don’t know who… Maybe Kemp)
    Colorado Rockies 83 wins (We won’t know until september just how good this team really is, and as it was in years past, it’ll be too late.)
    San Diego Padres 80 wins (Loosing such a big bat won’t be easy to account for, and the pitching will come back down to earth in ’11)
    Arizona Diamondbacks 75 wins (Re-building takes time, and ’11 is just another turning of the page in that process.)

    Boston v. Oakland
    Minnesota v. Tampa

    Boston v. Minnesota

    Atlanta v. Chicago
    SF v. Philly

    Atlanta v. Philly

    Boston v. Philly

    Philadelphia Phillies will be the 2011 WS champs. If they make the playoffs, who can match up with that 1,2,3 punch of a line up?

    Can’t wait for the season to start!

    • Thanks, Weston! I am absolutely inviting predictions. If you don’t want to be as detailed as Weston, just give me either: projected order of finish by division, or division winners and wild card teams only. I would LOVE to have predictions from all the readers, old and new.

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