Apr 082011

Major Changes

What is it with the Cardinals and Ryan? They changed Brendan Ryan for Ryan Theriot at shortstop, traded Ryan Ludwick (and signed Lance Berkman to play right field!) and made Ryan Franklin their closer. All they need to do is entice Nolan Ryan to run the team, and trade Pujols for Ryan Howard, and presto! The Ryan team. They also lost Wainwright to surgery, though this wasn’t a planned change, and promoted Augenstein as a relief pitcher. Not many changes.

Hitters 2010 B- 2011 B-

Their hitting appears stable. Pujols, scarily, projects to IMPROVE, though the appendectomy of Holliday can’t help matters much. I am not so sure about the Berkman experiment, though: he projects to 2.4 bWAR only as an above-average first baseman. As a OJT in right, I would expect his value to plummet.

Starters 2010 A 2011 B

The loss of Wainwright figures to cost the Cardinals 4-5 wins, which is a LOT. They thought they had the rotation completely worked out, but McClellan was not what they were expecting to use for 30 starts.

Bullpen 2010 B+ 2011 B-

And I see the pen as worse, as well. The Cardinals expected to compete for the central crown, and of course they still may. But I expect this bullpen to be worse than last year and maybe by a lot.

Overall 2010 B- 2011 B-

I guess they project the same, sort of. Last year the parts projected to be B+, but the Cardinals actually performed B-. This year the parts project to B-, does that mean the team will perform C? I think perhaps it does. I see them as an 82-80 team in 2011.

Charts

Player Position Age 2011 2010
Yadier Molina Catcher 28 2.2 2.8
Albert Pujols First Base 31 8.3 7.2
Skip Schumaker Second Base 31 1.1 0.4
David Freese Third Base 28 0.9 1.7
Ryan Theriot Shortstop 31 0.2 0.9 Ryan
Matt Holliday Left Field 31 5.2 5.5
Colby Rasmus Center Field 24 2.7 2.9
Lance Berkman Right Field 35 2.4 2.2 Ludwick
23.0 23.6

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Chris Carpenter Starting Pitcher 36 3.0 3.0
Jake Westbrook Starting Pitcher 33 0.6 1.0
Jaime Garcia Starting Pitcher 24 1.6 2.8
Kyle Lohse Starting Pitcher 32 0.0 -2.9
Kyle McClellan Starting Pitcher 27 1.0 5.7 Wainwright
6.2 9.6

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Trever Miller Relief Pitcher 38 0.4 0.1
Bryan Augenstein Relief Pitcher 24 0.5 1.8 McClellan
Brian Tallet Relief Pitcher 33 0.2 0.4 Reyes
Mitchell Boggs Relief Pitcher 27 0.1 0.3
Jason Motte Relief Pitcher 29 0.7 1.5
Ryan Franklin Closer 38 1.2 0.8
3.1 4.9

 

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