Major Changes

Adam LaRoche (1B), Mark Reynolds (3B) and Gerardo Parra (RF) are gone from the lineup, replaced by rookie Juan Miranda (1B), aged Melvin Mora (3B) and oft-injured Xavier Nady. Edwin Jackson and Dan Haren have left the rotation, replaced by Daniel Hudson and Armando Galarraga. JJ Putz was signed to be the closer. On the surface, these changes don’t seem to have anything at all to do with building a competitive team.

Hitters 2010 C- 2011 D

My analysis sees the hitters as 4.5 wins worse than last year, and that gives Miranda 1.0 WAR at first base, which may be generous. If Justin Upton were to go down with an injury, this team could go weeks at a time without scoring any runs. Not really fair: Kelly Johnson is a good player. But this offense, which was below average last year, looks to be pretty bad this time around.

Rotation 2010 B- 2011 B

Oddly, the rotation appears to be better. Daniel Hudson had a much better year than Edwin Jackson, for whom he was traded, though Jackson is considered to be the better pitcher. And Armando Galarraga (of the almost-perfect game) is an ordinary pitcher, replacing real talent (Dan Haren) but Haren was injured/bad last year. So even though the TALENT level is lower than last year’s rotation, the EXPECTED result is a bit higher (it would be higher still, of course, if you still had Jackson and Haren).

Bullpen 2010 F 2011 F

These ratings don’t do it justice – the Diamondbacks had a historically bad bullpen last year: not only was their bullpen ERA the worst in baseball, but it was the worst BY A FULL RUN. This year’s bullpen looks to be BAD – which is a whole lot better than last year. To gain 5 wins from the bullpen is a LOT, but to have only 2 wins from the bullpen is pathetic – last year they were WAY below replacement.

Overall 2010 F 2011 F

I do not expect the Diamondbacks to prosper this year, at all. The ratings suggest that they will have a decent rotation, undone by an impotent offense and a weak bullpen. I see them as being in the range of the Pirates and Astros, one of the worst teams in the NL.

Charts

Player Position Age 2011 2010
Miguel Montero Catcher 27 1.4 1.4
Juan Miranda First Base 27 1.0 1.2 LaRoche
Kelly Johnson Second Base 29 3.2 4.7
Melvin Mora Third Base 39 0.6 0.8 Reynolds
Stephen Drew Shortstop 28 2.6 3.4
Xavier Nady Left Field 32 0.3 1.1 Parra
Chris Young Center Field 27 2.3 3.7
Justin Upton Right Field 23 4.2 3.8
15.6 20.1

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Ian Kennedy Starting Pitcher 26 1.3 2.7
Joe Saunders Starting Pitcher 29 1.2 -0.2
Daniel Hudson Starting Pitcher 24 1.9 0.1 Jackson
Barry Enright Starting Pitcher 25 0.8 1.4
Armando Galarraga Starting Pitcher 29 1.0 0.4 Haren
6.2 4.4

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Juan Gutierrez Relief Pitcher 27 0.1 -0.4
Sam Demel Relief Pitcher 25 0.3 -0.7
Kam Mickolio Relief Pitcher 26 0.2 -0.3 Boyer
Aaron Heilman Relief Pitcher 32 0.0 0.0
David Hernandez Relief Pitcher 25 0.7 -0.4 Vazquez
J.J. Putz Closer 34 1.0 -0.4 Gutierrez
2.3 -2.2

 

One Response to “2011 Projection – Arizona Diamondbacks”

  1. Have you area a sorry scout or analysis. Haha go dbacks keep proving everybody wrong

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