Apr 142011

Major Changes

Not really, no. They brought in Ianetta to replace Olivo at catcher, getting younger though not necessarily better. They will play Lopez instead of Barmes at second, an upgrade. Brad Hawpe was expendable and is gone. They replaced Cook in the rotation with unproven youngster Esmil Rogers. But basically they are the same team that was on the fringes of the race, but never actually got there.

Hitters 2010 C+ 2011 C+

Remembering that these ratings are NOT park-adjusted, this was not a good offense in 2010 and looks similar for 2011. CarGo can hit, for sure, and Tulowitzki is one of the best. But beyond those two, the team looks worse than ordinary: the aging Todd Helton is their next best offensive hope. To truly compete this team needs a couple more bats.

Rotation 2010 B- 2011 C+

The park-adjustment works in reverse here, of course: they are better than their numbers. But Jimenez is unlikely to duplicate his phenomenal 2010, and in fact was fading by the end, and there is no one that projects to step up. Some may, of course: Rogers is the only truly young one (25), though, so what you see is what you are likely to get, and that is a small decline.

Bullpen 2010 B 2011 C+

And here, too, you are unlikely to see them keep up a pretty good 2010, at least history suggests they won’t. They made no substantive moves, and we are giving credit to the youngsters to get better, and still decline seems probable.

Overall 2010 C 2011 C

OK, I know that if your hitting, rotation, and bullpen are all C+, then you should be C+, and many people are predicting good things for the Rockies. But I see them as doing about as well, perhaps a bit poorer than 2010, and that means 83-79. Of course, in this division, that will be in the thick of the race.

Charts

Player Position Age 2011 2010
Chris Iannetta Catcher 28 0.9 1.7 Olivo
Todd Helton First Base 37 1.5 0.4
Jose Lopez Second Base 27 2.2 1.0 Barmes
Ian Stewart Third Base 26 0.8 0.9
Troy Tulowitzki Shortstop 26 5.8 5.6
Carlos Gonzalez Left Field 25 3.5 4.6
Dexter Fowler Center Field 25 0.7 0.5
Seth Smith Right Field 28 1.2 0.8
16.6 15.5

__________________________________________________________

Ubaldo Jimenez Starting Pitcher 27 6.4 7.2
Jorge De La Rosa Starting Pitcher 30 1.5 1.4
Jason Hammel Starting Pitcher 28 1.5 1.7
Jhoulys Chacin Starting Pitcher 23 1.3 2.3
Esmil Rogers Starting Pitcher 25 1.0 0.6 Cook
11.7 13.2

__________________________________________________________

Rafael Betancourt Relief Pitcher 35 0.9 1.2
Matt Lindstrom Relief Pitcher 31 0.0 0.3 Corpas
Franklin Morales Relief Pitcher 25 0.3 -0.5
Matt Reynolds Relief Pitcher 25 0.5 0.8 Beimel
Matt Belisle Relief Pitcher 30 0.7 1.9
Huston Street Closer 27 1.2 0.8
3.6 4.5

 

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