Major Changes

I guess when you win the World Championship you don’t really need too many changes. They plan to use rookie Brandon Belt at first base, moving Aubrey Huff to the outfield. They lost Juan Uribe and signed Miguel Tejada to play shortstop, so they are moving two veteran players the wrong direction on the defensive spectrum. They’ll use Andres Torres instead of Aaron Rowand in center. Their rotation is the same, and the bullpen is mostly the same, as well.

Hitters 2010 D+ 2011 D

Their 2010 offense was NOT good – 2011 looks to be a little worse. It is hard to expect that Huff and Burrell can duplicate their 2011 numbers, or that Tejada will do as well as Uribe. Torres may well be an upgrade, but the defense is likely to be much worse: Huff, Torres and Uribe may all be downgrades, and Belt might be, as well.

Rotation 2010 A+ 2011 A+

The rotation, on the other hand, was excellent and is unchanged. Even the projection, with its built-in regression from outstanding seasons, sees them as just as good: Sanchez, Bumgarner and Zito all figure to decline, but (heaven help us!) Lincecum and Cain figure to get BETTER.

Bullpen 2010 B+ 2011 B

The numbers say the bullpen will be just as good, but I believe it won’t be, quite. There will be a real falloff unless Ramirez bounces back strongly, and I don’t see that happening.

Overall 2010 B+ 2011 C

Here is where it gets tricky. The D+/A+/B+ combo figured to produce B- results, about 85 wins. But the Giants actually won 90 games, a B+ result. So I calculate that they will be a couple of games worse than the PROJECTION, NOT the actual result, which puts them at a pedestrian 82-80.

Charts

Player Position Age 2011 2010
Buster Posey Catcher 24 1.6 3.0
Brandon Belt First Base 22 1.5 5.7 Huff
Freddy Sanchez Second Base 33 1.2 1.5
Pablo Sandoval Third Base 24 2.4 0.7
Miguel Tejada Shortstop 36 0.9 1.8 Uribe
Pat Burrell Left Field 34 1.1 2.6
Andres Torres Center Field 33 2.5 0.0 Rowand
Aubrey Huff Right Field 34 2.6 0.0 Schierholz
13.8 15.3

__________________________________________________________

Tim Lincecum Starting Pitcher 26 5.6 3.6
Matt Cain Starting Pitcher 26 4.9 4.1
Jonathan Sanchez Starting Pitcher 28 2.3 3.6
Madison Bumgarner Starting Pitcher 21 1.5 2.3
Barry Zito Starting Pitcher 32 1.0 1.5
15.3 15.1

___________________________________________________

Sergio Romo Relief Pitcher 28 1.0 1.7
Javier Lopez Relief Pitcher 33 0.8 1.6 Casilla
Ramon Ramirez Relief Pitcher 29 1.5 -0.2 Mota
Dan Runzler Relief Pitcher 26 0.3 0.4
Jeremy Affeldt Relief Pitcher 31 0.9 0.0
Brian Wilson Closer 29 2.2 3.3
6.7 6.8

 

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